What, me Worry? The Barry Zito Edition

So Barry Zito decided to stay on the West Coast, for much greener and longer pastures than the Mets were willing to provide. Of course, doom and gloom permeates Metsfandom today, as the only true "ace" on the free agent market is gone. Lots of fans are screaming that the Mets should have spent whatever it took to get Barry, especially since the team has the "audacity" to raise ticket prices. Well, while I am not happy that Barry is not coming to Shea, I am not going to sit here and beat the piss out of Omar. That I will leave to others.

The bottom line is this, Scott Boras wanted to set the market. He wanted Barry to sign for 7 years. The Mets were not willing to go that long. They were willing to go to $18 m a year, but for no more than 5 years. It is quite possible that had this gone on longer, his price may have fallen to that area, but a few things happened to change the market.

First, the ridiculous contracts signed by Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Jeff Suppan and others. You know, for all the shit the Mets took a couple of years ago signing Kris Benson to his deal, where are the howls of outrage this time around. None of the above are guys who are worth the dollars they signed for. Teams are reaching, and there was a dearth of good talent available in the FA market this offseason. Seeing those guys sign for that amount, and even the 4 or 5 years in some cases, helped Boras make his case. You can also throw Jason Schmidt in here, as his production the last couple of years has faltered, yet at 32, he signed a 4 year deal. This had the added benefit for Boras of taking Schmidt out of SF, opening a spot for Zito.

Second, the backlash in SF over the lack of big moves this offseason. Sure they resigned Bonds, but they lost Schmidt, lost out on Soriano (talk about an overvalued contract, shit). They lost Moises Alou (a good signing by the Mets, thanks Omar). They needed to make a splash, and Zito offered the chance to take a local guy and bring him aboard.

Third, the Yankees. Now, it is probable that they were never going to get involved. But the mere thought that the Boss might be willing to enter the fray caused teams that might have been waiting to see if the market came down to enter the bidding now. Is it a coincidence that this deal came down mere days after word leaked that the Yankees were shopping the Big Eunich? I may be wrong, but probably. By simply being in the mix, however quietly, Boras had another mystery team to use as leverage.

So Omar refused to go over 5 years. Yes, Zito is only 28, and yes, he has proven durable. However, as you have no doubt read today, Kevin Brown and Mike Hampton were young and durable when they signed with the Dodgers and Rockies, yet they soon ran into health issues. Brown was never the same, and Hampton has been oft injured, and is due to try to comeback this season. The track record for pitchers who sign 5 year + deals is littered with injuries. The same people who complain now that ticket prices are high, would have been screaming louder if Zito had signed here and gotten hurt in 3 years, leading the Mets to have to spend more big money to replace him, and having to raise prices more.

So what's next? Should I worry about a staff that looks like this:

Glavine
Maine
Duque
Perez
Williams/Pelfry/Humber/???

Maybe. But here's the thing, Glavine has his goal of 300 to go for. Duque, providing he gets his rest, is good for 12-15 wins. Maine improved last year, and is probably good for 12 wins. Perez, having a full spring learning from The Jacket, could return to close to his excellent 2004 season. And if the #5 spot does as well as last year, if even a little better, this team is still in a good place. Let's not forget Pedro coming back in July, rested and ready for the stretch, and the playoffs. Last season, many were worried about the roatation after Pedro and Glavine, and it worked out OK did it not? Yes, the pen lost Oliver and Bradford, but Filthy Sanchez will be ready for the spring, Heilman is still there, Mota will be back after 50 games (more like 60, as he will need some minor league innings to get into game shape). Padilla is healthy, and looked sharp in 2005. We also have Soler, Adkins, Burgos and Vargas to take spots, not to mention some of the younger arms in Kevin Mulvey, Joe Smith (who some think can make the leap this year, replacing Bradford).

Finally, we have Omar. We have payroll room. Would I like to see a trade for a pitcher, like a Penny (who would be #2 in the rotation, not #1, allowing him to slot better against other teams)or Beckett (think he would benefit from the NL swap? Think Boston needs a closer {read Heilman}?) before the spring, sure. Then again, Omar may wait to see how things pan out in the spring, and in the early part of the season. With the payroll room, he can make a deal for someone to solidify things if needed. This team is still going to rake, Alou is more than an adequate replacement for Uncle Cliffy. Green will exceed Nady at the plate (though Green may be worse in the field, as hard as THAT is to believe). 'Stache, if he hits 260, is a fine late spot bat. Delgado and PLD will be healthy. So long as the pitching does OK, they will win their share of game on the power of the bats. Then, Omar can swing a trade and fill in the rotation if needed.

Have a safe and Happy New Year. I'll be back Tuesday.