Mets Preview Part 2 - Here Comes the Questions!

Well, I was prepared to write a blog of support for Mike Pelfrey to make the rotation, but apparently Mike gave Willie all he needed to see, so I can settle down to my Pitching Preview.

Since last season ended, we have seen some changes in the make-up of the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen that helped the Mets make the NLCS. Gone are Darren Oliver, Steve Trachsel, Chad Bradford, Guillermo Mota (for a little while at least). Pedro Martinez will be MIA until July or August. Omar did what he could to fill in the bullpen, adding Scott Schoenweiss (aka The Show, which is a hell of a lot easier to type). From a rotation standpoint, Pedro is not available until July or August. Barry Zito is not walking through the door, deciding to go with the less egocentric San Francisco Giants (note to Barry, hope you like the losing).

The rotation as of now looks like this:
Glavine
El Duque
Maine
Perez
Pelfrey

Of course, the "experts" are making a lot of noise about the age of Tom and El Duque, as well as about the recent past of Perez in Pittsburgh. All they have done this spring is basically look good. Glavine is on target to be the Game 1 starter. Duque, despite arthritis, has looked good, going 6 his last time out. Perez has done very well, as had Maine until Saturday. Better to get the clunker out of the way now. Pelfrey is night and day compared to last spring, as his slider and change have looked a lot better, even if he did leave a change up high yesterday.

The thing that annoys me is that yes, Glavine and Duque are old, but they have pitched well. Glavine had a very good playoff, and El Duque did well for the Mets. Perez and Maine, well, we all know what they did in the playoffs. So yes, there are a couple of older guys at the front end, but there is youth in spots 3-5, and we have Rick Petersen to show them the way. I think Maine and Perez could win 15 games each. Glavine will win around the same, possibly 18. El Duque is an enigma, but he could win 12-15. Pelfrey I'm thinking will win around 10. Not too shabby.

The bullpen on the other hand is a question in my mind. Wagner is still working on another pitch. I still like the signing, and think he is among the top closers in the game. He just needs to focus a bit more, and stop worrying about how big the lead is when he comes in. Billy, always think it is a 1 run game.

In front of Wags, we have Heilman, who turned it on once Dirty went down. Yes, he gave up the homer in Game 7, but he is still among the top set up men in the game. If The Show can do his job against lefties, we can deal with the missing Dirty for a while. Mota coming back May 27 (game 51) will leave him fresh for the second half, assuming his performance here was all Him, and not all whatever he shot into his ass. Pedro2 is back, and has had a great spring. I'm not worried about him. Replacing Bradford is rookie Joe Smith, who's non-descript name belies a nice mix of pitches and strong character. He will slot in nicely. Jon Adkins will have a role, somewhat surprisingly, as he struggled early in camp, but has done well as of late. The question is, who replaces Oliver, who filled the role of long man, short man and seemingly every role except emergency starter? For now, it appears Chan Ho Park has the role. So our pen looks like this:

Wagner
Heilman
The Show
Feliciano
Smith
Adkins
Park

With Mota on deck, and maybe Dirty Sanchez, depending on his rehab. We are still waiting to hear the results of his MRI fromover the weekend.

Omar made a couple of other additions, adding Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister, Jorge Sosa (who is probably a goner). Jason Vargas came abourd, but was sent to the minors to work as a starter. Aaron Sele was brought in, but odds are he will be released, since he thinks he is too good for the minors (note to Sele, um, not really there champ, take a look at the numbers will ya?)

The key to this team last year was the bullpen. The same holds true for this season as well. At first look, it seems a little shakier, since Dirty is not there at the start, Heilman's elbow was barking, and the loss of Oliver and loss of Bradford leave some reason for concern. That being said, Park can take over for Oliver, and Smith seems to fit in for ChadBrad. Willie must use the pen wisely, taking care to not overuse people if possible. The return of Mota should help, as will Dirty. The bullpen is the question in my mind, moreso than the rotation.

This year we will not have to suffer through Lima Time!, or the other misfits. The depth this year is a little better, with Vargas and Park probably ready to step in if another starter is needed.

So, experts be warned, any staff can have issues (take a look at the Bronx, who have had a couple of injuries, and will have Carl Pavano as opening day starter). There is something to be said about a 41 year old with 290 wins as your rotation anchor, along with a winner like El Duque. The wild card is Perez. If he can recapture his form of 2004, the Mets will have stolen him from the Pirates, and will have a 3-5 of youth and talent.

Last year, I stated on Metsgeek that the Mets needed to win 6 of 10 in order to win the division. They nearly did so, going 97-65 for a 599 %. I think that between the bats and the arms, they can do the same. Remember, they did not have Pedro for a while last year, and did not have a talent like Pelfrey at the back end of the rotation.

That's my prediction, and I'm sticking to it. Feel free to add yours in the comments.