Pitching Hot Stove

Well, certain writers apparently think that the Mets are one and done. Personally, I hope this guy likes ketchup with his words, when this team makes him eat them next year.

Now, I am not naive enough to believe that it will be easy next year. The other teams will get stronger, and the Mets have pitching issues as we enter the offseason. So, as promised last week here is my take on next steps. I will start my “who should stay, who should go, who should join” series with the pitching staff. Needless to say, Steve Trachsel, need not apply.

Starters – Despite what Wally thinks, no Mets fan is thinking Oliver Perez will be the #1 starter, or should be. However, between Perez and John Maine, we have #3 and #4 starter slots filled. I for one am looking forward to seeing what Perez can do with more quality time with The Jacket. Maine gained valuable experience this year, and did quite well. I see good things from both of them going forward. Needless to say, Perez, who is arbitration eligible, should be brought back.

So, that leaves #1, #2 and #5 open. Starting with #5, we have a choice from among Pelfrey, Humber (who was just shut down for “tired arm” in winter ball), Bannister, Soler, Dave Williams (arb eligible), and perhaps Heilman, depending on how the pen shakes out. These guys are going to get shots to make the team in the spring. As #5, they will have the chance to learn on the fly, with low expectations. Personally, I think Soler should go. I did not like a lot of what I saw last season, and think there are other options. Williams should be back, but he may wind up filling Darren Oliver’s long man role, as Oliver is a FA, and odds are someone is going to offer him a nice fat deal, perhaps to start. Heilman could go in the right deal, but it is going to have to be a good one.

As for #1 and #2, well, Pedro is done until July at the earliest, so let’s not count on him. Glavine could go, though Omar is saying all the right things, and odds are Atlanta is not going to want to pay him $11 million, given their budget issues, and his age. Tom will hopefully be back, leaving #1 as the open item.

Lot’s of names for #1. Zito. Schmidt, Matsuzaka. Lets go over each.

Schmidt is 33, went 11-9 with an ERA over 3.5. He will be looking for a 4 year deal. Given his age, and drop off in the speed of his fastball, I’ll pass. I do not want to be paying him $10 m at age 37.

Matsuzaka is 26, went 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 200 strikeouts in Japan. Now, I know all about the Mets history with Japanese players. I do not care. Poster child Kaz Matsui would belived by many in baseball to have great talent. It just did not work. Using him as an excuse to not bid on Matsuzaka is stupid. That being said, my reason for not wanting him is money. It is estimated that in order to be able to talk contract with him, a team is going to have to pay $30 million in the posting process. Then you get to sign him. His agent is Scott Boras, so count on $7 - $10 million a year. For a Major League Rookie. If he gets the low end, you are talking about $58 million over 4 years. Just a tad too high for my liking.

We turn our sights to Barry Zito. Barry is 28. Worked with The Jacket in the past and won the CY Young award. Went 16-10 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in the AL. Given the recent success of pitcher moving from the AL to the NL, this is the guy I want. He is young. He is a winner. He works well with Peterson. He could easily win 20 games with the Mets next year. Now, he is probably looking at a 4 year deal at $15+ m a year. I say $16 m and 4 years. That is $64 m, only $6 m more than Matsuzaka, and he is no rookie. Get it done Omar. I know a lot of people are down on Barry, but considering the top line alternatives, this is the guy.

As we learned this season, you can never have too many starters. We used 13 this year. So, we should add some depth. Take a look at Mark Mulder, maybe he will sign a cheap 1 year deal in the hope of a WS win and the chance to earn more with a big season coming off surgery. Look into trading for a middle of the rotation guy. If that can be done, then Maine and Perez are now 4 and 5, and the pool of #5 guys gets more seasoning in the pen or the minors. Oh, Dontrelle Willis, ain’t coming. Other teams have more chips to send Fla. way. If Omar can pull that off without giving up the entire farm, I will be stunned, and he will win Exec of the Decade. Wild Card – Victor Zambrano. It will be interesting to see if they offer arb, or non-tender him and resign him cheaper. Part of me would like to see what he can do when healthy, he had spurts where he did well. Maybe the elbow caused him to tire quickly. As for El Duque, I think he will be back, especially if Glavine does not reutrn. He did quite well after coming over from Arizona. I do worry about his age and the # of innings he could give, but he could be a good #3 alternative, or lower, and then slot as the long man in the playoffs.

The bullpen has a few guys who are free or arb eligible. Sanchez, Mota, Oliver, Feliciano, Bradford. Sanchez will be back, so will Bradford more than likely. As noted above, Oliver is probably gone. It is important that Mota be resigned, as well as Feliciano. We could see Henry Owens and Juan Padilla (coming off surgery) get long looks in the spring. We saw how important a strong pen was this year. We need it again next year, with the rotation questions.

Let me know your thoughts. I’m sure other names will pop up as the offseason silliness kicks into high gear once the World Series is over.

Later in the week – fielders and lineup next steps. It does not look good for Uncle Cliffy, sad to say.