T-2 - Nolan Redux

Season 2 of the Ted Nolan regime begins this evening with a game versus the team that eliminated the Isles from the playoffs last year, the Buffalo Sabres in Buffalo (part of a home and home with the Isles opener Saturday). So, what can we expect from Ted's boys this year?

Last year the Islanders had the element of surprise in their favor. Nobody (even I) expected much. All the experts picked them to finish last. And why not? Nolan hadn't coached in the NHL in years. There was turmoil in the front office. Yashin was still here, there was youth on defense, questions about DiPietro, and little scoring. Somehow, mostly through hard work most nights, the Isles made the playoffs as the 8th seed. Scoring came from Blake (gone now) Yashin early in the season, Sillinger proved to be a wise pickup as he chipped in. The team actually had 5 players score 20 goals, and Yashin had 18 while missing 24 games. The defense proved capable. DiPietro played very well, finishing in the top 10 in GAA and SV%. They actually were contending for a higher seed until DiPietro suffered a concussion, leaving the final games in the hands of Wade Dubielewicz (and if you think I typed that from memory, you are wrong), who played very well the last week, allowing the team to sneak in.

However, this offseason saw more change. Blake, Tom Poti, Sean Hill, Ryan Smyth (mid-season acquisition), and Voctor Kozlov all left for greener pastures. Yashin was bought out. All told, nearly 100 goals were removed from the offense. The defense was hurt by the loss of Poti, who did quite well, surprising me and others. The big question as we enter the season is who is going to score?

Give Garth Snow credit. He tried to go after some of the big names, but many signed ridiculous contracts elsewhere. Instead, he went more towards youth with a chance to blossom and dependable veterans. Let's take a look at who was added:

Bill Guerin - Named the Captain of the team. This is a smart move as Bill is widely respected. He scored 36 goals for San Jose and St. Louis last year. He was quiet in the playoffs however. Is he going to replace Blakes 40? Nope. But he will replace Yashin's output, and bring a better leader to the ice. No nights off from Billy.

Mike Comrie - Center for the #1 line. 27 years old. Garth got him cheap, and he was a kind of package with Guerin. 20 goals last year. There are some questions about whether he is a top #1 center. You know what, I don't care. He is the #1 here, and I think in the right system, he can thrive. He's on a 1 year deal, so he has a lot to play for.

Ruslan Fedotenko - LW for #1 line. Signed away from Tampa Bay. Scored 26 goals two years ago, only 12 last year. Good skater, should mesh well with Comrie and Guerin.

Josef Vasicek - Center. Wild Card. Scored 19 goals in 2004 in 82 games, but played only 23 and 25 the last two years for the Hurricanes (he also played 38 for the Predators last year). Talent is there. If he lives up to it, this could be a very wise signing by Snow. If not, well, he could be Oleg Kvasha. Let's hope not.

Andy Sutton - Defense. Replaces Sean Hill, who took his steroids and went to Minnesota. Tough player. Not a points guy, a stay at home crease clearer, which is vital if the Isles are to keep DiPietro from getting hit by punks like Sean Avery.

Also added to the mix for this year are Jon Sim (last seen in Atlanta), as well as Sean Bergenheim, who will get his shot in the NHL after missing last year in a stupid holdout. Bryan Berard may also be signed to help on the power play.

Overall, the defense is not going to be all that much better than last year, though Sutton will be an upgrade over Hill, and having Bergeron around for the whole year should help on the power play. They need Gervais and Campoli to continue to improve, both are still young and have good potential. Hopefully this is the year Radek Martinek can be healthy for the entire season. He has a lot of talent and could blossom.

Offense is going to be tough. There are no big scorers. This team is going to have to capitalize on mistakes by other teams and take advantage of the power play. Special teams hurt them last year, as the Power Play was poor and the penalty killing was abysmal. Improvement on both is key. Trent Hunter needs to get back to his form of 2 years ago. Hopefully he can. The guy is a prototypical power forward and has a good shot. How he works with Vasicek is key. Berard could help the PP, as teams would not be able to key on Bergeron, who has a hellaciously hard shot.

The key of course on the ice is DiPietro. If healthy, he can be a top 5 goalie. So long as the defense can keep the crease clear, he should stay healthy. He had minor surgery on his hip in the offseason, and has looked good. Dubie won't play more than 15 games, tops. He needs to keep the team in those games. Rick needs to work on his risk taking. He needs to pick his spots to roam better. He is like another defenseman, so long as he is smart about it.

The key overall though is Nolan. Can he get this group to gel? There are a lot of new faces. The loss of Yashin and Blake is seen as addition by subtraction in terms of the team ethic, but they did lose a lot of offense when they left. I am not going to cry over the loss of Smyth, he wasn't here long, and the guys given up are not top flight prosepcts. Guerin will make an excellent Captain, and will make sure the youngsters show up to play every night. Those few youngsters there are of course. Nolan can be a little Willie Randolph-ish when it comes to using Proven Veterans © (thanks Metsgeek Geeks). Jeff Tambellini should be on this team over Andy Hilbert. I think we will see Jeff here soon. Campoli and Gervais will see reduced time in favor of Witt and Sutton. He relies on his vets. Hopefully they are up to the task, and hopefully the youngsters take advantage of the opportunities they get and force him to play them more.

So, what does my crystal ball say? Nothing, I threw it away after it failed me with the Mets.

What does my gut tell me? This team will fight to the end and barely miss the playoffs.

One last thing. I am very disappointed to see Chris Simon back. His actions last year were despicable. He needs to make sure he does nothing stupid this year. I will support the team, as I am a fan, but I wish he was not here.