51 Games Left

The title says it all. There are 51 games left starting tonight. It's actually quite simple. The Mets need to simply win at the same pace they have been all season, 57%, and go 29-22 the rest of the way. The final record would then be 92-60. In order to beat the Mets, the Braves (with 50 games left) would have to go 34-16 (play .680 ball), while the Phillies (51 left) would have to go 35-16 (play .686 ball). Neither team has done that this year. And neither has show the ability to do so.

The Mets have 9 games (3 sets of 3 games) left with Atlanta and 7 (a 4 game set and 3 game set) left with the Phillies. Obviously, series wins over each of these teams is vital. It starts tonight with 3 at Shea against the Braves. The pitching match-ups are as follows:

Perez v Carlyle
El Duque v Smoltz
Maine v Hudson

To date, the Braves hold a 6-3 edge on the Mets, with Perez winning all 3 games. El Duque faced them once, with an ND, and Maine has actually never faced the Braves. Of course Carlyle being a scrub will work against us, a classic SUCK ME pitcher. Smoltz is hittable against the Mets, but they never seem to get the "big" hit against him. Hudson is having a very good season to date. For a detailed look at the Braves pitchers, visit Metsgeek.

Following this series, the Mets have the following schedule

Florida (3)
@ Pittsburgh (3)
@ Washington (3)
San Diego (3)
LA Dodgers (3)
@ Philly (4)
@ Atlanta (3) 8/31 and 9/1, 9/2
@ Cincinnati (3)
Houston (3)
Atlanta (3)
Philly (3)
@ Washington (3)
@ Florida (4)
Washington (3)
St. Louis (1 rainout make-up)
Florida (3)

The time is now to send a message. Taking 2 of 3 is a must against Atlanta. The Braves then face the Phillies this weekend, so taking 2 of 3 against Florida is also important. The Phillies have Florida the next 3 days, so they could sneak a tad closer. One thing is for certain, the Mets will remain in 1st after the Braves series, no matter what happens.

The bats are warming up. Wright and Delgado are hitting. Castillo seems to be settling in. Shawn Green has hit the Braves well this year (of course, his fielding leaves something to be desired). PLD has as well. Jose Reyes is hitting, Milledge is providing a spark in the #8 spot. For all the wishing that Lastings would hit #2, he is doing a good job hitting 8th, he creates excitement, and is able to be on base when Reyes comes to the plate. He lengthens the lineup there, and for a team that needs to be creative to score runs, he adds that dimension. Willie gets panned for hitting him so low, but it is paying off, and at the end of the day, that is what matters. We may not like the "gut", but we need to realize that it is right many times.

The key this week is going to be the pen, and defense. Heilman needs to have a strong series, he has taken two of the losses against the Braves, both in games the Mets were leading. Pedro Dos needs to get back on track. On the defense, Green needs to tighten it up, and guys need to make the basic plays.

The Mets control their own destiny for the most part. Frankly, this team has the talent to play much better than .568 ball the rest of the way. They played .600 ball for April, and were at .654 at the end of May. Do that the rest of the way, and the job for the Braves and Phillies becomes nearly impossible. The Mets would finish with 96 wins if they play .654 the rest of the way, just shy of last years 97 wins. Get it done. Starting tonight.